The New Listings Advantage
The data reveals a powerful pattern: cryptocurrencies tend to have their biggest percentage gains during their first bull market cycle. After that initial explosion, most coins experience significant "cycle degradation" — delivering smaller returns in subsequent cycles.
📈 First Cycle Advantage
New coins often deliver 10x-100x gains in their first bull run. Examples: SOL did 51,683% in 2018-21, then only 2,915% in 2023-25 (-94% degradation).
📉 Cycle Degradation Reality
93% of coins with two-cycle data show degradation. The average drop in run-up percentage is -85%. Only 3 coins (ZEC, INJ, ZEN) improved cycle-over-cycle.
🎯 Strategic Implication
Consider focusing on quality new listings early in a cycle, rather than holding established coins expecting similar returns. The first rally is usually the biggest.
⚠️ The Meme Warning
Meme coins like DOGE (-98%), SHIB (-100%) had historic first cycles. Their subsequent performance suggests the narrative has peaked. Be cautious of "sequel" gains.
Cycle Degradation Visualization
Comparing 2018-2021 vs 2023-2025 cycle run-up percentages for coins with historical data
| # | Coin | ROI 2025 % | 23-25 Run-up % | 18-21 Run-up % | Cycle Change % | Bear Proj. | Bull Proj. | Notes |
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